Apple takeover of Facebook tops improbable 2011 events

by Richard Wachman

Saxo Bank's predictions for next year make interesting reading – but will any come to pass?

According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the Lebanese philosophical essayist, most forecasting is nonsense since "Black Swan events", such as the near collapse of the banking system, are written off as "highly improbable".

With that in mind, Saxo Bank, based in Copenhagen, has published "10 outrageous predictions for 2011," leaving readers to decide whether the forecasts are really that far-fetched.

Top of the list is its prediction that Apple will use some of its $50bn of cash to buy Facebook from Mark Zuckerberg.

Others are that the dollar will make an extraordinary comeback as China overheats and inflation takes off. As the Asian feel-good factor vanishes, developing countries will use their spare dollars to acquire US government bonds, pushing the 30-year treasury yield down to 3%. Australia will be caught in the Chinese backdraft and the Aussie dollar will fall 25% against sterling; and the property bubble in Australia will finally burst.

Oil will advance to more than $100 a barrel, but will finish 2011 back at $70. Gold will surge from around $1,375 a tonne to $1,800. The US S&P share index will smash through its 2007 high point to reach 1600, as investors sell bonds and buy equities.

Natural gas will surge 50%, helping the Russian stock market to double in value. And in the US, the Federal Reserve Bank will face a backlash from Congress over its programme of quantitative easing.

Ignore these predictions at your peril, but remember that forecasts of any kind have the potential to damage your personal wealth.

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